Covid-19 reached a record high in Germany this week, as its politicians announced they are ignoring the advice to the Health Ministry and plan to relax restrictions starting the 20th.
German scientists and medical societies are protesting.
A look at the gnarly epidemic curve below shows why they worry.
France, Denmark, and other European countries have similar curves. Fans of chaos theory will note that violent oscillations often presage a major change—but not the direction of the change.
When we look at aggregated data, the inflection seems less worrying.
The New Omicron BA.2 Variant is Partly to Blame
Until recently, most of the omicron cases have been the BA.1 variant. In recent weeks, about 30% of US cases are the new BA.2., which is one of the most contagious viruses known. It has modifications in the S spike, where the virus attaches to human cells, which make it much more infectious.
In the UK, about 80% of strains are BA.2.
Fortunately, the new variant does not seem to be more deadly than previous strains.
What Might Happen Next
No one can rule out yet another covid-19 spike, so we should stay cautious, especially since North American peaks often shadow those in Europe.
It seems at least as likely that North American cases will continue to drift near pandemic lows.
Don’t throw away your N-95 masks just yet.
Congressman Matt Gaetz Advises Putin
Gaetz, who opposes US support for Ukraine, told the conservative CPAC conference: “Why should Americans have to pay the cost of freedom elsewhere when our leaders won’t stand up for freedom here?
I’m not for sending Americans to Ukraine — except maybe one. If Russia wanted to destabilize Ukraine, they didn’t need to send tanks. They could have sent Dr. Fauci.
